The Fishing is Best where the Fewest go.” and “Do you really need the bottom?

There is nary a day that goes buy that I am not asked a question similar to: “So, Gregg, when do you think we will hit bottom of this market?”  I am never quite sure of what answer to give, or indeed what answer the questioner wants to hear. Does he want validation?  Assurance?  Guidance? Affirmation? Or is he like most people and wants a chance to give his answer and is not really interested in mine?


I submit to you that most of us do not care where the bottom of the market is, we care most about what WE are doing.  Finding about when the bottom of the market will be is immaterial; as immaterial as it is to someone who is home suffering from the flu being told when the flu epidemic will be over. 


One of the best weekly newsletters I read, and I have sent you this link before, is written by John Mauldin (Thoughts from the Frontline).  His column today give a very detailed and data supported answer to the question of where the bottom is in the housing market.  (He says 2011).   On the other hand the Wall Street Journal did an article about our local market, in it they seem to tell us the bottom is here, come on down now, and you better hurry, and by the way , bring your check book.


But yesterday I got a call from a subscriber, Paul. Paul bought two condos out in Gateway.  He now owes more than what he can sell them for.  “What should I do Gregg?” (Note he didn’t ask me where the bottom of the market will be.)   Earlier in the week Gunther and Debbie were working with visitors from Germany.  They flew out last night carrying an executed contract on a single family home for $365,000. They also never asked where the bottom of the market was.  In our office we placed over 15 contacts for clients on single family homes this past week.  These buyers are also not asking for the bottom – they believe it is here!


I am reading two books right now. The Secret, by Rhonda Byrne, 2006 Atria Books, given to me by my friend John Sullivan of BBL Development (Developers of Parkside) and The Four Hour Work Week,  by Timothy Ferris, 2007 Crown Publishers, given to me by my former marketing manager and good friend Tatiana Cuevas. One book is about the laws of attraction and the fact that positive thinking actually works, and the other is about figuring out what you really want in life and by the way, it should not be work. It should be no surprise that there are kernels of wisdom that are common to both books.


Positive thinking and not going with the crowd are perhaps two kernels I subscribe to. The saying: “The fishing is best where the fewest go.” Perhaps talks best to the crowd mentality that exists in the real estate market. Doing what everyone else is doing calms our collective insecurity. We buy where everyone is buying. We buy WHEN everyone is buying. Indeed we fish where folks are already fishing. The true leaders are path beaters, however, not path followers.


Positive thinking and the laws of attraction I live by. I certainly don’t walk into the room lamenting on how bad the real estate market is, I talk about the wonderful opportunities there are for buyers, I hang my hat on the positives in the conviction that I will attract more positive things around me. Our real estate market is booming. Houses are affordable again, there are many choices, money is cheap, and sellers are anxious to deal.


The bottom is here in Florida, in spots, in markets, and in price ranges.  It is not everywhere.  It takes some work to find the good deals, there are simply so many choices and options right now.. But I submit to you that what the “MARKET” is doing is not entirely significant to your personal situation, to the second home you want to buy or to the sale you need to make.  A “market correction” of 21% means nothing to the value of your home.


You don’t need the bottom, you just need to make the best deal you can make on a retirement home or investment, and now is the time to do it. Once the Wall Street journal announces the bottom, it will be an historical event, not a current event.

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